Comments on: Keeping Prediction Honest

By: jstults

jstults — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:05:21 +0000

An interesting twenty-year old climate change prediction by Dr Hansen.

By: shapeshift

shapeshift — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 17:47:32 +0000

Thanks for sharing your predictions. I never thought about the accountability and honesty of predictions. It seems to bring what is kitchen table gossip into the realms academia and science… and imbues the predictions with more power.

By: starving people

starving people — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 04:34:37 +0000

You asked for examples of failures, I provided a few. Feel free to hand wave and ignore the deep implications at your own risk.

By: Danielle Fong

Danielle Fong — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 17:02:02 +0000

starving people,

I mention the efficient markets hypothesis and climate change in my predictions…

By: starving people

starving people — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 06:11:31 +0000

Here’s another, for science. Global Climate Change. Documented for decades, of intensely global significance, yet ridiculed and derided for as long, careers tarnished or worse, to this very day. Attacked by a select few vested interests, quite possibly at the expense of the planet and all that walk upon it. Any serious reader of Kuhn should note that waiting for the old guard to die off places all at great peril.

Anyone conditioned to quickly dismiss the ‘kooky’, to suspect the informed, to ignore obvious facts, they too should take note, for they are not alone in lacking a new planet of escape, should things turn out as predicted.

By: starving people

starving people — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 01:42:53 +0000

Here’s a huge example, that has world wide impact. The economic policies favored by the ‘Chicago school’, as promoted by the likes of Hayek and Friedman. Plenty of failed predictions there, lots of dishonesty and lack of accountability. See Naomi Klein’s Shock Doctrine for a healthy dose of counterpoint, then review the corporate media spin that continues unabated to this very day.

It’s a problem as old as Scipio v Cato, if not much, much older.

By: Danielle Fong

Danielle Fong — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 07:06:50 +0000

starving people,

Do you have specific examples for which improvement failed to follow both honesty and accountability.

By: starving people

starving people — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:46:57 +0000

The history of prediction is influenced by those that write history.

I’ve lost count of how many things the hippies were right about, and how many of the lies of those that write history (including felons and war criminals populating the current regime) continue to propagate as common wisdom. In politics, economics, and more. Even tech (just ask Stallman).

“Through accountability, honesty. Through honesty, improvement.”

I predict a balanced review of history might improve that assumption.

By: Prakash S

Prakash S — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 06:34:01 +0000

Writing down predictions and re-visiting them when those events take place is good so that one does not suffer from cognitive dissonance. Once you have the feedback system in place, accountability, honesty and improvement follow.

By: Danielle Fong

Danielle Fong — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:41:50 +0000

I expect to be around for most of them, actually, but there will still be a lot to learn from well before the deadline. Keeping a deadline is mostly to hook progress on to some implicit timeframe.

By: Mayson Lancaster

Mayson Lancaster — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:37:54 +0000

Here’s a question to ponder: How many of these predictions do you expect to be around to see decided? I expect to be around for a few, and hope (with a certain amount of rational justification) to be around for most of them (although I’ll be over 150 in 2100).

By: Danielle Fong

Danielle Fong — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:12:06 +0000

Thanks Nate,
I’ll give that a try. :-)

By: Nate

Nate — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:51:00 +0000

You could also use something like Inkling to ask the crowd to help predict the things on your list. There’s a lot of great ones here on your list that would make excellent prediction markets.